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UK economy and sectors
How are the forecasts produced?
The forecasts are produced using CE's Multisectoral Dynamic Model (MDM) and the intelligence gathered from a network of industry experts.
MDM is distinguished from most other UK models by its degree of 'disaggregation' - the extent to which it breaks the economy down into different sectors. Some 86 industries are distinguished as integral parts of a single model. Because the model solves 'bottom-up' by adding industry projections together in an input-output framework, it does not suffer from the discrepancies between industry totals and macro totals that can require scaling to enforce consistency in a two-model approach. It produces consistent macroeconomic and industrial forecasts, which are provided together, in one service.
Industry consultants provide intelligence on factors such as company strategies, technological developments, new legislation or regulations, and structural shifts that could make future outturns differ from past experience. These insights are used to check and refine the forecast. Alongside the forecast figures, consultants produce commentary on recent developments and the outlook for seven broad sectors: Manufacturing, Construction, Distribution, Transportation & storage, Information & communication, Financial & business services and Government services. Forecast data are aggregated and published for 32 industry categories.
The 32 industry categories are:
| 1 | Agriculture etc | 17 | Utilities |
| 2 | Mining & quarrying | 18 | Construction |
| 3 | Food, drink & tobacco | 19 | Distribution |
| 4 | Textiles etc | 20 | Retail trade |
| 5 | Wood & paper | 21 | Transportation & storage |
| 6 | Printing & recording | 22 | Accomodation & catering |
| 7 | Coke & petroleum | 23 | Media & IT services |
| 8 | Chemicals, etc | 24 | Financial & insurance |
| 9 | Pharmaceuticals | 25 | Real estate |
| 10 | Non-metallic min. prods | 26 | Legal, acc., manag. & eng. serv. |
| 11 | Metals & metal prods | 27 | Other professional services |
| 12 | Electronics | 28 | Business support services |
| 13 | Electrical equipment | 29 | PAD |
| 14 | Machinery, etc | 30 | Education |
| 15 | Transport equipment | 31 | Health & social work |
| 16 | Other manuf. & repair | 32 | Arts & recreational serv. |
Forecast data for the full 86 industries are available to subscribers on request. A list of the 86 industries is available here.
For further information, including prices, and to order the service, email:
Graham Hay
Manager, UK Industrial Service