Cambridge Econometrics is a leading independent consultancy specialising in applied economic modelling and data analysis techniques. We aim to provide rigorous, accessible and relevant independent economic analysis to support strategic planners and policy-makers in business and government, doing work that we are interested in and can be proud of (see more on our origins and ethos).
Our work covers a number of thematic areas of interest, encompassing the UK, Europe and global areas in our analysis. We also produce economic forecasts at macro, sectoral and regional levels, with a portfolio covering the UK and Europe, delivered through our client-access Knowledge Base.
This page shows a selection of some of our recent work. You can access the full range through the site menus. You can also follow us on LinkedIn.
LEP GVA Dashboard - Now with data to 2013
Cambridge Econometrics has developed a spreadsheet tool (LEP GVA Dashboard) that allows analysis, including graphical analysis, of GVA per capita and its components (productivity, employment rate, activity rate and dependency ratio) for each Local Enterprise Partnership.
For more information and to download the latest version of the tool, with data to 2013, click here.
Greater Cambridgeshire City Deal - Economic Prioritisation of Transport Schemes
Cambridge Econometrics and SQW have completed a study for Cambridgeshire County Council in which a tool was developed to enable the economic prioritisation of the transport schemes within the Greater Cambridge City Deal. The City Deal is structured in such a way that future tranches of funding are dependent on the performance of the schemes delivered through the initial funding. The tool allowed the Council to rank the transport schemes in and around Cambridge based on their ability to facilitate or enable extra housing and employment growth in the area, while taking into account the timescales for planning, construction and occupation of the relevant development sites. The final Transport Economic Assessment Report (TEAR) is available here.
For more information contact Mike May-Gillings.
The Impact of Wind Energy on UK Energy Dependence
Cambridge Econometrics was commissioned by RenewableUK to assess the effects of wind energy on energy dependence and resilience in the UK. The study found that an increase in wind capacity in the UK would lead to a reduction in imports of gas and improved resilience against fossil fuel price shocks.
The report is available here.
Developing a toolkit for regional bio-economy
The BERST project, in which CE is a Work Package leader, has completed the first year of work. During this time, CE led work identifying and quantifying the drivers of regional bioeconomy, while other workpackages undertook the collection of a range of instruments & measures from regional stakeholders across the EU. During Year 2 of the project the toolkit will be further developed, bringing together information on the economic, social, environmental and political landscape of the EUs NUTS2 regions to provide guidance to regional policymakers.
Please contact Ben Gardiner and Jon Stenning for more information.
How many EU environmental targets?
The combined E3ME-FTT model was used in an assessment of possible environmental targets for the EU in 2030. In contrast to the results that are typically found in modelling approaches in which it is assumed that optimal outcomes are achieved, our modelling showed that there could be economic benefits to having targets for both GHG emission reduction and renewables shares. As explained in the paper, the reason is that Europe’s economy is not starting from an optimal position, either in terms of existing policy or in utilisation of economic resources.
For more information contact Hector Pollitt.
Including Road Transport in the EU Emissions Trading System
Cambridge Econometrics was commissioned by the European Climate Foundation to model the effects of including road transport in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). The E3ME model was used to assess (1) the effect on CO2 emissions if road transport was included in the EU ETS under current EU ETS price projections; (2) the carbon price required to achieve the same level of emissions reduction as that which could be achieved by anticipated vehicle efficiency standards (of 60gCO2/km for new passenger cars by 2030). The analysis shows that under current ETS price projections, inclusion of road transport in the EU ETS would reduce emissions in the road transport sector by just 3% by 2030. In order to achieve the same level of emissions abatement in road transport as that which could be achieved by vehicle efficiency standards, a carbon price averaging €217 over the period 2020-2030 would be required. The report is available here.
For more information contact Sophie Billington.
Environmental taxes and human capital
The concept of Environmental Tax Reform has been around for a long time now but economists continue to debate how best to use the potential revenues from environmental taxation. Cambridge Econometrics recently presented modelling results based on a new suggestion, to use the proceeds to invest in human capital. The idea is attractive to policy makers both in developed and developing countries, as it could equip workers to deal with the structural changes required to follow a path of green growth.
Our approach draws on detailed labour market analysis. It is still early-stage research but the initial results are positive, as summarised here. For more information contact Hector Pollitt.
The Economic Impact of Modern Retail on Choice and Innovation in the EU Food Sector
Cambridge Econometrics, in a team led by EY France and also including Arcadia, has completed a major analysis of the impact of modern developments in retailing on the choice and innovation in products offered to EU consumers. Carried out for DG Competition, the project was based on some 11 million records of bar-code data for products grouped into 23 product categories for 343 shops in 9 EU countries over the period 2004-12. A number of metrics were constructed to measure different aspects of the choice made available to consumers and different kinds of innovation in products.
CE's role was to carry out econometric analysis to distinguish the role played by different potential drivers of choice and innovation, including the characteristics of the shops, the extent of competition among retailers both nationally and in the catchment area of each shop, the extent of competition among suppliers nationally in each product category, the importance of private labels in each product category nationally and in the assortment offered by each shop, as well as a range of socio-demographic and economic environment drivers.
The report was launched in Brussels at a conference addressed by the Director-General, Alexander Italianer.
Fuelling Europe's Future
Cambridge Econometrics, in collaboration with Ricardo-AEA, Element Energy and a number of independent experts, has undertaken a research project to assess the economic impact of decarbonising cars and vans. The project was commissioned by the European Climate Foundation and was informed by a core working group of experts in the motor vehicles industry as well as other interested stakeholders. The report "Fuelling Europe's Future" considers the economic impact of a series of forward looking scenarios that encompass alternative visions of Europe's future vehicle fleet.
The report won the prize for ‘Low Carbon Report of the Year’ at the Low CVP award ceremony on 10th September. The judges commented that “Cambridge Econometrics prepared a very thorough, authoritative, high quality report; very good macroeconomic analysis which gave a holistic overview.” More information about Low CVP and the award ceremony is available on their website: www.lowcvp.org.uk
The report is available here
The Economics of Climate Change Policy in the UK
Cambridge Econometrics was commissioned by WWF-UK to assess the impacts of climate change mitigation measures on UK households, businesses and the macro-economy. MDM-E3, CE’s econometric model of the UK economy, energy system and environment, was used to model the impacts of taking measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the power sector, buildings, transport, industry and agriculture. The analysis shows that investing in energy efficiency measures and low-carbon technologies in order to meet the fourth carbon budget will lead to the creation of 190,000 jobs and a small increase in GDP (1.1%), relative to a scenario in which no further action is taken to decarbonise the UK economy. The report was launched at an event in the Houses of Parliament with a response by Ed Davey, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change.
For more information contact Sophie Billington.
The report is available here.
Adult Further Education learners: Matched Data Earnings Analysis
The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) has recently published the results of a study carried out by Cambridge Econometrics and the Warwick Institute for Employment Research, which reviewed the potential use for various purposes of a measure of earnings in a new ‘matched’ dataset developed by BIS.
The study team analysed the dataset and recommended methods for overcoming certain limitations of the data (eg it does not explicitly distinguish part-time and full-time employment) and to take account of other observable factors that impact upon a person’s employment and earnings outcomes, in order to be able to present earnings measures for different uses (eg informing choice, assessment/discussion of institutional performance, indicate the value of qualifications). For more information contact Mike May-Gillings.