Cambridge Econometrics
Cambridge Econometrics is an independent consultancy that applies economic modelling and data analysis techniques to the needs of clients in business and government. We are a leading independent economic forecasting group with a full portfolio of economic intelligence services covering the UK and the rest of Europe delivered through our Knowledge Base accessed via this website, and a substantial consultancy capability.
This page shows a selection of some of our work. You can access the full range through the site menus.
| May 2012 Cambridge economists rate Chelsea over Spurs for next season's Champions League |
 | Ahead of the UEFA Champions League final in Munich this Saturday, Cambridge Econometrics has analysed the strength of the teams in the English Premier League, to assess who is really deserving of Champions League football next season. Key points: - Cambridge Econometrics analysis suggests that Chelsea, not Tottenham Hotspur, are the fourth-strongest team in England and are a better bet for next season's UEFA Champions League
- While Spurs gained more points, Chelsea performed better against the top Premier League teams and are likely to be better-equipped to face top European opposition next season
- Conversely, Liverpool's triumph in Istanbul in 2005 masks their poor domestic form that season: we rate them lower than the final Premier League standings suggest
- Our analysis is inspired by Google's page-ranking algorithm and we apply the technique to rate teams' relative strength
- The league table at the end of the Premier League season only shows how many teams you beat; our analysis considers whom you beat
The full press release can be found here. |
May 2012
Carbon taxation and fiscal consolidation
Cambridge Econometrics supplied the macroeconomic modelling for a new report considering carbon fiscal measures in the light of the need for fiscal consolidation in Europe, published by Green Budget Europe, the European Climate Foundation, and Vivid Economics. Covering energy taxes and the EU emission trading scheme, the report shows that they are an overlooked component in Europe’s fiscal armoury. These measures can raise new fiscal revenues at lower macroeconomic costs than alternative taxes, making them an attractive revenue raising option in current economic conditions.
May 2012
Weak GDP growth and public spending cuts will leave unemployment high for the rest of this decade
Cambridge Econometrics has published the latest update of its UK Industrial forecast, with detailed macroeconomic and industrial forecasts to the year 2025.
We expect GDP to recover from the decline reported for the first quarter to grow by close to ¾% in 2012 as a whole. Growth in 2012 will be led by financial & business services; output in manufacturing and construction is forecast to fall. Employment is forecast to fall in 2012 and recover very slowly in the medium term. Weak GDP growth and public spending cuts will see unemployment continue to rise in the medium term to around 2m.
The full press release is available here.
For further details contact Graham Hay.
February 2012
Sustainability Scenarios for a Resource Efficient Europe
The European Commission has published our report describing a vision for a sustainable Europe in 2050. Produced in collaboration with the Sustainable Europe Research Institute (SERI) and the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, the report explores the key elements of sustainability and the important linkages between these elements. It then suggests quantitative targets for reducing resource consumption and puts forward a comprehensive modelling framework that could be used to assess progress towards these targets.
The full report is available
here.
February 2012
The Competitiveness of the EU Mechanical Engineering Industry
DG Enterprise and Industry has published our study (led by
CESifo, Munich) on the competitiveness of the EU Mechanical Engineering industry. The study researched and analysed the structural and micro-economic factors affecting the competitiveness of the EU Mechanical Engineering sector, to support the development of a coherent and integrated approach towards the sector. CE was responsible for the collection and presentation of data to describe the main structural features of the Mechanical Engineering sector, and the analysis of data to assess and explain the competitive position of the Mechanical Engineering sector.
The report is available
here.
December 2011
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills has published the results of the 'Working Futures 2010-2020' study
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills has published the results of the
Working Futures 2010-2020 study, which has been carried out by Cambridge Econometrics in collaboration with the Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick.
Working Futures 2010-2020 is the fourth in a series of labour market assessments that provide detailed projections for the UK labour market. It focuses on a ten year horizon, providing a picture of the labour market in the UK for 2020. The core purpose of Working Futures is to inform policy development and strategy around skills, careers and employment.
The results provide an insight into the prospects for:
- The sectoral pattern of output and employment
- The occupational structure of employment
- The magnitude and pattern of job openings across the economy, taking into account employment growth and replacement demands
- The demand and supply of qualifications
- The labour markets of the regions and nations of the UK.
The main report provides a detailed analysis against all of these key questions and is supplemented by a sectoral report and a full technical report.
The report is available
here.
December 2011
Environmental Components of Economic Recovery
The European Commission has published our assessment of the environmental components of Europe’s fiscal stimulus packages over 2008-10. Undertaken in collaboration with Ecorys, our approach combined macroeconomic modelling with more flexible quantitative and qualitative analysis. The assessment covered a range of policies, including investment plans, tax cuts and vehicle scrappage schemes. The results showed generally positive economic and environmental outcomes but highlighted a trade-off between policies that provided an immediate economic boost (e.g. car scrappage schemes) with those that provided long-term environmental benefits (e.g. investment in energy efficiency).
The report is available
here.
December 2011
Sectoral Unit Labour Costs and European Competitiveness
DG Enterprise and Industry has published our study (carried out with CESifo, Munich) on trends in sectoral unit labour costs and the implications for European Competitiveness. The study assembled a database of unit labour costs for manufacturing industries and selected service sectors for the EU countries and global competitors (including Brazil, China, India and Russia), and constructed real effective exchange rates from these data to summarise trends. The study sheds light on the competitive weaknesss of the eurozone economies now under pressure, and on the importance of including the BRICs in the assessment of competitiveness. For more details click here.