Cambridge Econometrics is a leading independent consultancy specialising in applied economic modelling and data analysis techniques. We aim to provide rigorous, accessible and relevant independent economic analysis to support strategic planners and policy-makers in business and government, doing work that we are interested in and can be proud of (see more on our origins and ethos).
Our work covers a number of thematic areas of interest, encompassing the UK, Europe and global areas in our analysis. We also produce economic forecasts at macro, sectoral and regional levels, with a portfolio covering the UK and Europe, delivered through our client-access Knowledge Base.
This page shows a selection of some of our recent work. You can access the full range through the site menus. You can also follow us on LinkedIn.
Potential economic impacts of Brexit
The UK is now feeling the short-term ramifications of the Brexit vote and there is now uncertainty around when and how Article 50 will be triggered. Economists expect this uncertainty to dampen growth in the short term. The UK's longer-term prospects depend heavily on the nature of the trade deals the UK will strike with the EU and the rest of the world. Nevertheless, the consensus is that the potential economic losses will ultimately outweigh any economic gains.
In this note, we summarise recent developments and the potential future impacts of Brexit.
Cambridge Econometrics applies its models and quantitative approaches to carry out in-depth and objective economic assessments. This includes UK analysis that accounts for the interdependencies in the modern global economy. This work also extends to individual sectors and geographic regions.
We will publish elements of this analysis on our website. If you are interested in the detail or want to discuss how we can provide you with specific economic analysis, please contact Chris Thoung at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Cambridge Econometrics' position following the UK's vote to leave the European Union
Life after the Brexit vote presents a challenge to research-based consultancies with an international staff serving an international market. The outcome of the referendum cast uncertainty over the future relationship of the UK with the European Union and, indeed, the rest of the world. As a company Cambridge Econometrics has always been, and will remain, an outward-looking business with a strong network of partners throughout Europe and, increasingly, across the wider world. In the face of Brexit, we will look to strengthen these relationships with partners and not retreat from them; we will look to build our presence in Europe, not allow it to diminish; and we will continue to deliver our brand of clear evidence-based analysis to support policy-making in the UK, in the European Union, and elsewhere in the world.
The result of the referendum also highlights the considerable challenges that policy makers face in the UK: in particular rising income inequality, economic uncertainty, pressures on public services and the lack of social mobility. Cambridge Econometrics remains committed to support UK policy makers at the national, regional, city and local level with the relevant and rigorous analysis needed to respond to these challenges.
Cambridge Econometrics announces a new Chairman, Managing Director and Deputy Managing Director
In late May, Terry Barker, founder of Cambridge Econometrics stepped down from his role as Chairman of the company and the board unanimously voted to appoint Richard Lewney to the role, following Richard’s 26 years’ service to the company as Managing Director. The Directors have now completed the search for a new Managing Director and would like to announce that from 1 July Phil Summerton has been appointed to the role. The Directors have also decided to establish the role of Deputy MD to share some of the functions of leadership, and are delighted to say that Anthony Barker has been appointed to that position. These changes will bring a fresh approach to leadership that will help to shape and drive forward the company’s development. They will also give confidence that CE’s fundamental values and ethos will be sustained.
Evaluation scoping study for the Agri-tech strategy
The UK Government’s Agri-Tech Strategy was one of eleven industrial strategies published by BIS in 2013. This project, led by SQW, developed methods to evaluate the strategy at some point in the future. SQW led the work to review the candidate methodologies and recommend a suitable approach to evaluation. CE led the work to establish a baseline on the historical performance of the agri-tech sector and develop baseline projections out to 2028 against which future performance can be compared.
The published report is available here.
Oil import dependency in the EU
Cambridge Econometrics (CE) was commissioned by Transport and Environment (T&E) to assess oil import dependency in the EU. The study examined the EU’s exposure to security of supply risks through its oil imports and estimated the proportion of oil that is imported from non-European companies. The study finds that the EU’s dependency on crude oil and refined fuel imports is high and rising. Much of this oil comes from geopolitically unstable regions. This makes the EU economy, particularly its transport sector, vulnerable to supply and price shocks.
The final report is available here.
The interactive web tool is available here.
Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review launched
Richard Lewney was the lead economist for the Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review (NPIER), prepared by CE in partnership with SQW, and he presented at the launch in Liverpool on 30 June. The event included contributions by Lord O’Neill (HM Treasury), Northern Powerhouse Minister James Wharton MP, Sir Richard Leese (Leader of Manchester City Council) and John Cridland (Chair of Transport for the North).
The NPIER reviewed the nature of the North’s performance gap and the factors driving it, identified the North’s existing and emerging assets and capabilities, and set out scenarios for the North’s future in which transformative investment in skills, transport infrastructure and other economic drivers promote a long-term improvement in the North’s economic performance.
It provided a key input to the development of Transport for the North's infrastructure plans.
The report is available here.
UNEP Finance Initiative report examines the link between environmental risks and sovereign credit ratings
What happens when increasing populations and incomes lead to higher demand for resource-intensive food while climate change and resource scarcity disrupt food supply? A new report released today by the UNEP Finance Initiative and Global Footprint Initiative, with the quantitative analysis undertaken by Cambridge Econometrics, finds that this growing imbalance of food demand and supply will lead to higher food prices and food price volatility, ultimately resulting in material impacts on national economies. The report models the impact of a global food price shock on 110 countries to assess which countries face the greatest economic risk from the growing imbalance between food supply and demand. It summarizes the results in a ranking of countries according to impact on GDP and other macro indicators. The report was launched on 18 May at an event at the London offices of S&P Global Ratings, a partner in the project.
The report is available here.
The European Climate Foundation launches Cambridge Econometrics study on the effects of low-carbon transport policy on oil markets
The study, carried out by Cambridge Econometrics, Pöyry Management Consulting and The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), examines the effects of low-carbon transport policies on long-term oil prices and the wider economy. The results presented in the study show that, in a world where climate policies are implemented to drive investment in low-carbon technologies, reduced demand for oil from transport would result in lower oil prices and net macroeconomic benefits in Europe.
See here, for more information.
UKCES publishes Working Futures 2014-24
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES) has published the latest iteration of the Working Futures series of reports and forecasts – Working Futures 2014-24. This major project was again undertaken by a team from Cambridge Econometrics and the Warwick Institute for Employment Research. The Working Futures series has developed a reputation for credible and comprehensive employment projections for the UK and its nations and regions. It meets a need within government, its partners and stakeholders, and among employers and individuals in the labour market, for information on current and future labour market trends to inform decision-making. The project drew on CE's long experience in modelling economic and labour market trends in the UK, its nations and regions, and its local areas and on our high quality databases. This edition included the provision of results for Local Enterprise Partnerships areas in England, Economic Areas in Wales, Regional Skills Assessment areas in Scotland and Workforce Development Forum areas in Northern Ireland.
The reports from the study can be found here.
For more information contact Mike May-Gillings.
Improving environmental policy assessment by incorporating the insights of behavioural and complexity sciences
This new paper lays out an advanced inter-disciplinary approach to environmental policy assessment that goes far beyond existing standard practice. It shows how traditional assessment methodologies adopt an unrealistic view of how people behave and suggests the widespread adoption of a new generation of modelling tools that incorporate insights from behavioural and complexity sciences, combined with in-depth policy and legal assessment. The result is a better understanding of how policy can address the drivers of and obstacles to take-up of innovations that can tackle environmental degradation. The paper includes findings from CE’s global model and addresses many of the issues about existing Integrated Assessment Models that have been raised recently by Lord Stern.
The Future of National Infrastructure
With the National Infrastructure Commission now grappling with its commitment to produce a first National Infrastructure Assessment during this Parliament, UK researchers have set out the principles for how that assessment could be carried out and have completed a comprehensive assessment of the future options for national infrastructure systems in Great Britain.
The book The future of national infrastructure: a system-of-systems approach is the product of five years of research by several groups who together form the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC). Cambridge Econometrics (CE) contributed long-term economic projections from its UK energy-environment-economy model, MDM-E3, disaggregated by sector and UK region, to feed into the more detailed infrastructure models. CE provided a number of projections under a range of assumptions about future conditions to feed into the robustness analysis.
More information is available here.
Scoping study of the Aerospace Technology Institute
This project, led by SQW, carried out a scoping study to review, develop and recommend different monitoring systems and key performance indicators (KPIs) for evaluating funding programmes of the Aerospace Technology Institute (ATI). The project also established a baseline analysis of the aerospace industry against which future performance can be compared.
The full report is available here.