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    The company is the trading subsidiary of the Trust, which is a registered charity.

    The Trust arranges conferences on new thinking in economics.

    The next conference:

    Emerging Economies during and after the Great Recession

    Thursday 26 March 2015
    at St Catharine's College,
    Cambridge

     


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    Cambridge Econometrics: providing specialist support to professional service companies

    Cambridge Econometrics offers a wide range of skills and expertise with which to support the work of professional service companies. Please download this brochure for more information.

    Cambridge Econometrics

    Cambridge Econometrics is a leading independent consultancy specialising in applied economic modelling and data analysis techniques. We aim to provide rigorous, accessible and relevant independent economic analysis to support strategic planners and policy-makers in business and government, doing work that we are interested in and can be proud of (see more on our origins and ethos).

    Our work covers a number of thematic areas of interest, encompassing the UK, Europe and global areas in our analysis. We also produce economic forecasts at macro, sectoral and regional levels, with a portfolio covering the UK and Europe, delivered through our client-access Knowledge Base.

    This page shows a selection of some of our recent work.  You can access the full range through the site menus. You can also follow us on LinkedIn.


    November 2014

    How many EU environmental targets?

    Wind FarmThe combined E3ME-FTT model was used in an assessment of possible environmental targets for the EU in 2030. In contrast to the results that are typically found in modelling approaches in which it is assumed that optimal outcomes are achieved, our modelling showed that there could be economic benefits to having targets for both GHG emission reduction and renewables shares. As explained in the paper, the reason is that Europe’s economy is not starting from an optimal position, either in terms of existing policy or in utilisation of economic resources.

    For more information contact Hector Pollitt.  

     

     


    October 2014

    Including Road Transport in the EU Emissions Trading System

    MotorwayCambridge Econometrics was commissioned by the European Climate Foundation to model the effects of including road transport in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). The E3ME model was used to assess (1) the effect on CO2 emissions if road transport was included in the EU ETS under current EU ETS price projections; (2) the carbon price required to achieve the same level of emissions reduction as that which could be achieved by anticipated vehicle efficiency standards (of 60gCO2/km for new passenger cars by 2030). The analysis shows that under current ETS price projections, inclusion of road transport in the EU ETS would reduce emissions in the road transport sector by just 3% by 2030. In order to achieve the same level of emissions abatement in road transport as that which could be achieved by vehicle efficiency standards, a carbon price averaging €217 over the period 2020-2030 would be required. The report is available here.

    For more information contact Sophie Billington.

     


    October 2014

    Environmental taxes and human capital

    EducationThe concept of Environmental Tax Reform has been around for a long time now but economists continue to debate how best to use the potential revenues from environmental taxation. Cambridge Econometrics recently presented modelling results based on a new suggestion, to use the proceeds to invest in human capital. The idea is attractive to policy makers both in developed and developing countries, as it could equip workers to deal with the structural changes required to follow a path of green growth.

    Our approach draws on detailed labour market analysis. It is still early-stage research but the initial results are positive, as summarised here. For more information contact Hector Pollitt.

     


    October 2014

    The Economic Impact of Modern Retail on Choice and Innovation in the EU Food Sector

    Cambridge Econometrics, in a team led by EY France and also including Arcadia, has completed a major analysis of the impact of modern developments in retailing on the choice and innovation in products offered to EU consumers.  Carried out for DG Competition, the project was based on some 11 million records of bar-code data for products grouped into 23 product categories for 343 shops in 9 EU countries over the period 2004-12.  A number of metrics were constructed to measure different aspects of the choice made available to consumers and different kinds of innovation in products. 

    CE's role was to carry out econometric analysis to distinguish the role played by different potential drivers of choice and innovation, including the characteristics of the shops, the extent of competition among retailers both nationally and in the catchment area of each shop, the extent of competition among suppliers nationally in each product category, the importance of private labels in each product category nationally and in the assortment offered by each shop, as well as a range of socio-demographic and economic environment drivers. 

    The report was launched in Brussels at a conference addressed by the Director-General, Alexander Italianer.

     

     

     


    September 2014

    Fuelling Europe's Future

    Low Carbon Report of the Year AwardCambridge Econometrics, in collaboration with Ricardo-AEA, Element Energy and a number of independent experts, has undertaken a research project to assess the economic impact of decarbonising cars and vans. The project was commissioned by the European Climate Foundation and was informed by a core working group of experts in the motor vehicles industry as well as other interested stakeholders. The report "Fuelling Europe's Future" considers the economic impact of a series of forward looking scenarios that encompass alternative visions of Europe's future vehicle fleet.

    The report won the prize for ‘Low Carbon Report of the Year’ at the Low CVP award ceremony on 10th September. The judges commented that “Cambridge Econometrics prepared a very thorough, authoritative, high quality report; very good macroeconomic analysis which gave a holistic overview.” More information about Low CVP and the award ceremony is available on their website: www.lowcvp.org.uk.

    The report is available here.

     

     

     

     

     

    September 2014

    The Economics of Climate Change Policy in the UK

    The Economics of Climate Change Policy in the UKCambridge Econometrics was commissioned by WWF-UK to assess the impacts of climate change mitigation measures on UK households, businesses and the macro-economy. MDM-E3, CE’s econometric model of the UK economy, energy system and environment, was used to model the impacts of taking measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the power sector, buildings, transport, industry and agriculture.  The analysis shows that investing in energy efficiency measures and low-carbon technologies in order to meet the fourth carbon budget will lead to the creation of 190,000 jobs and a small increase in GDP (1.1%), relative to a scenario in which no further action is taken to decarbonise the UK economy. The report was launched at an event in the Houses of Parliament with a response by Ed Davey, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change.

    For more information contact Sophie Billington.

    The report is available here.

     

     

     

      

    August 2014

    Adult Further Education learners: Matched Data Earnings Analysis

    Adult EducationThe Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) has recently published the results of a study carried out by Cambridge Econometrics and the Warwick Institute for Employment Research, which reviewed the potential use for various purposes of a measure of earnings in a new ‘matched’ dataset developed by BIS.

    The study team analysed the dataset and recommended methods for overcoming certain limitations of the data (eg it does not explicitly distinguish part-time and full-time employment) and to take account of other observable factors that impact upon a person’s employment and earnings outcomes, in order to be able to present earnings measures for different uses (eg informing choice, assessment/discussion of institutional performance, indicate the value of qualifications). For more information contact Mike May-Gillings.

     

     

    July 2014

    GDP growth will slow down in 2015 following strong growth in 2014

    • Strong growth in household expenditure and investment is expected to taper off in 2015.
    • Growth is likely to remain robust in the short-to-medium term for Financial & business services, Information & communications and Construction.
    • Little rebalancing is forecast in the medium term. 

    Cambridge Econometrics has released a new version of its UK Industrial forecast, with detailed macroeconomic and industrial forecasts to the year 2025. A full press release can be found here

    For more information about the forecast and subscriptions to the Industrial service please contact James Stevens

    March 2014

    Regional Bio-economy project website launch

    Bio EconomyA major FP7 project with which Cambridge Econometrics is closely involved (BERST) has recently launched it's own website, from which interested parties can gain information about the research. The purpose of the project, which was launched in December 2013, is to undertake an assessment of the bioeconomy potential and strategies of a range of different regions in Europe, and in doing so gain understanding of the possibilities and challenges related to the enhancement of regional bio-based economies. The outcome of the project will be a toolkit and an operating bio-regional network which should ultimately be taken over by the EU Bioeconomy Observatory.

    Please contact Ben Gardiner and Jon Stenning for more information.