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Demographic analysis
Context
Understanding the likely long-term change in the characteristics of the population is vital for the effective planning of infrastructure and services by both the public and private sectors. It is, however, a complex task, with the trends influenced by many factors that may be demographic (eg natural aging of the current population), social (eg trends in fertility rates, tendency for multi-generation households) and economic (eg relative strength of the local economy can attract people to an area, the level and type of housing provision can influence migration to an area).
To better plan for the future means understanding the contribution the different factors could have.
Tools and competence
The Chelmer Population and Housing (Chelmer) Model is a well-established demographic model that provides projections of local population, households and potential housing needs under alternative assumptions. The model is used by a large number of local authorities, regional planning bodies, property developers and others and has had a central role in many planning enquiries and EIPs.
There are several options to using the model:
- a version of the model can be supplied to be used in-house
- we can work with you to develop tailored projections
The Chelmer model has been developed over many years by the Population and Housing Research Group at Anglia Ruskin University under the leadership of Professor Dave King. With the group effectively ceasing, Cambridge Econometrics offered to take on supporting the model. Former members of the Population and Housing Research Group are continuing to work with CE to provide continuity of service and consultancy support.
For further information contact:
James Derbyshire
Senior Economist