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Hector Pollitt Project Manager, International Modelling BSc (Nottingham) |
Hector Pollitt specialises in the application of econometric techniques to large, disaggregated data sets to interpret historical experience, to simulate the impact of alternative policy options, and for forecasting.
He leads on the operation and development of CE's large-scale European econometric model, E3ME, and on CE's contribution to developing the global E3MG model. He also contributes the same expertise to CE's similar UK model (MDM-E3). These responsibilities include overseeing the maintenance and development of the models' extensive time-series and cross-section databases, with detailed sectoral and regional disaggregation, and the estimation and updating of the models' parameters. He leads on the application of E3ME in impact studies and forecasting exercises notably for energy-environment-economy analysis and detailed sectoral analysis, including current employment projections across Europe for CEDEFOP's analysis of occupational skills requirements and of available supplies.
He has managed and undertaken a variety of impact studies and simulation exercises to prepare scenarios in which the effects of various sets of alternative assumptions are modelled. For example, he has recently contributed to impact assessments of revisions to the Energy Taxation Directive (DG Taxud) and modifications to the European Emission Trading Scheme (DG Environment), and to research on environmental tax reform in the EU (Anglo-German Foundation and DG Research), Sustainability Assessment in the EU's New Member States (DG Research), the effects of R&D spending (DG JRC-IPTS) and direct health impacts from pollution (DG Research).
At a national level he has provided modelling support to studies looking at decarbonising the Mexican economy, Portugal's commitments to the Kyoto treaty (Energias de Portugal), cap and share emission trading in Ireland (Comhar SDC) and, for the UK Film Council, a study of the economic impact of the screen industries in the UK. He also provides support to organisations that are using the E3ME model under licence.
He is currently leading the update of the European Commission's internal IA TOOLS database of modelling tools in Europe, interpreting detailed technical information and presenting it in a way that is accessible to a non-technical user.
He also contributes analysis and commentary to CE's regular UK Industrial and UK Regional forecasting services. He obtained an Upper Second BSc (hons) in Mathematics and Economics from the University of Nottingham. Prior to joining CE he worked as a consultant to the University of Cambridge Local Examinations Syndicate, undertaking statistical analysis of the performance of children in literacy examinations taken at ages 7, 11 and 14.
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