Housing, employment, and commuting
The relationship between housing and employment is a complex one.
Households are located in places where they occupy single or multiple occupancy
dwellings and they contain a disparate set of members: single; young or in
growing families; working or retired; inactive, unemployed or disabled. Tenure
is an important dimension of housing choice, with the long-term shift from
public to private home ownership, and new developments in social housing and
in the role of private rented property having substantial implications for
the way local housing markets now work. There are neighbourhoods that have
strong social networks and contain a high representation of
‘work-rich’ households with the multiple advantages that
flow from good access to suitable well-paid employment. Such places are
the most advantaged ones economically, socially and environmentally.
By contrast there are neighbourhoods displaying cumulative multiple disadvantages
in jobs, housing and social problems, with an associated need for renewal
and regeneration. Work-related migration and commuting add to this complexity
as jobs and housing markets in one local area are related to others across
UK space and over time by the ability of workers to choose to separate
their workplace and residence. There is a substantial requirement for
joined-up analysis in this area.
Following the Barker review of housing supply, the government has expressed a new commitment to intervention in housing markets, reforming the planning system and the delivery of increased investment in housing and infrastructure to support sustainable housing growth. This is seen in the Growth Areas policies for the south of England: Thames Gateway; Milton Keynes & South Midlands; London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough and Ashford; the plans for London; and, by contrast, in the Housing Market Renewal Pathfinders initiatives in the Midlands and the north of England, and which are focussed on improving housing markets in areas of low demand.
Cambridge Econometrics is well placed to understand and advise on all aspects of this complex reality in a way that adds value for our clients. Analysing at micro and macro spatial levels, and with an already established track record of work in this area for clients in both the private and public sectors, we can illuminate the housing planning issues for you. Our work for public bodies is often linked to the statutory strategic planning of locations for jobs and housing. For these public sector clients we model the detailed processes by which jobs, housing, migration and commuting choices are made and brought into balance with the availability of job offers, housing opportunities and transport infrastructure through into the future.
Tools and competence
CE offers our tailored suite of spatially detailed, multi-sector employment and environmental sustainability models. Our studies are designed to illuminate and inform the decisions made by the client and to allow them to take this understanding into the public domain, for example at planning enquiries. We are skilled at working in teams with other consultancies in the transport and development fields and in modelling the way that the demand for jobs and housing relate to infrastructure provision or a development brief. We present an informed and communicable understanding of how all these factors interact based on a sound technical approach. Specifically, we offer:
- an established reputation for understanding of the links between the economy, jobs and housing at national to local area levels
- rigorous and detailed analysis, combining formal modelling and other statistical techniques with vital qualitative information
- the wider spatial perspective within which particular policies or strategies are operating, to provide the complete picture
- access to a full suite of CE supporting models including LEFM, our local economy forecasting model for jobs and skills analysis, and REEIO, our model that provides policy makers with a firm basis on which to assess the impact for sustainability and the environment.
The development and application of our experience in this field is illustrated by the examples of projects we have undertaken recently.
Examples of our work
Housing Implications of the West Midlands Regional Economic Strategy
Advantage West Midlands
This project was designed to support the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS)
consultation in the West Midlands and to guide strategic thinking on
investment in the Regional Economic Strategy. The work tested the consistency
between housing targets and economic strategies for local development
in the West Midlands.
CE's modelling work looked at the relationship between the economic and
social drivers for net new housing allocations. The aim was to produce
housing projections at local authority level through to 2026 driven by
projections for the location and scale of employment growth. The housing
projections distinguished market demand and non-market social housing
needs to compare with an existing preferred option developed separately.
CE developed projections of employment by 41 economic sectors for all
34 local authorities across the West Midlands, and derived from these
projections of employment by occupation. A travel to work model was then
used to move from these to projections of the number of households with
different occupational mixes and living in different housing tenures.
The model was then used to derive alternative scenarios based on alternative
assumptions for the growth of employment in different locations.
Commuter Flows in London and the Wider South
East 2001 to 2016/21
A consortium led by the Corporation of London
This project established a common methodology and database for estimating commuting flows within London and its neighbouring regions (the South East and the East of England). The project was led by Cambridge Econometrics, with contributions from the transport consultancy WSP and a consultant from the London School of Economics. The resulting model was used to assess the commuting implications of policies on investment in major transport infrastructure and of alternative paths for economic development. The impacts on commuter flow patterns were examined for a range of scenarios affecting future transport and land use planning issues, which may be put into effect by 2021.
Key issues addressed by the study include: examination of commuting flow change and its spatial variation using the 2001 Census workplace and journey-to-work data; examination of the relationship between the occupational structure and skill requirements of employment projections and the skills and characteristics of the available workforce in London; the extent of growth of sub-regional employment centres outside London and the extent to which they will compete with London for highly-skilled labour; the relationship between locations of employment and housing growth and public transport capacity inside and outside London; the extent to which development in the Sustainable Communities Plan growth areas of Thames Gateway and London-Stansted-Cambridge appear likely to change the strength of journey-to work flows in those areas; the influence of major new transport infrastructure/capacity on commuting flows in the areas served.
Employment and Housing Growth Implications of
Second Runway at Stansted
Government Office for the East of England
This project, jointly funded by the Government Office for the East of England and the East of England Development Agency, looked at the employment and housing implications of a second runway at Stansted airport. The context for the study was that the original Regional Planning Guidance (February 2004) was prepared on the assumption of only one runway. A study commissioned from Colin Buchanan & Partners (The Buchanan Study) and published in December 2003 looked at development options of a second runway, and CE (in collaboration with York Consulting) was chosen to apply an alternative methodology which would provide a different way of viewing the impact of the expansion on employment and housing demand. The CE study used an econometric approach to isolate direct from indirect sectoral employment effects by district across the whole of the South East, and was thus able to condition the findings on the gravitational affects of other London airports which could be seen to be in competition with Stansted for freight and passenger flow. The final report was presented to a key stakeholder meeting containing representatives from the main regional institutions.
Support for Business Planning
A major builder developer
The project developed a model to forecast new house prices for each of the unitary authority areas of England and Wales, and the Scottish Regions. This required the construction of an indicators database including economic drivers and other housing market data. The model of the housing sector was designed to capture the interaction in the local area between the change in house prices, earnings and a measure of housing demand-supply deficit. A simpler model was also implemented for selected US states in which new house prices were driven by earnings and migration.
Economic and demographic analysis for Northstowe
new town development
English Partnerships
Northstowe is a new town of some 8,000-10,000 dwellings proposed for development on a former military site just north of Cambridge. English Partnerships is contributing, on behalf of the public sector, the land formerly owned by the Ministry of Defence, and required analysis of the economic and demographic drivers of the wider sub-region and detailed projections for the likely composition of the inhabitants of Northstowe to help plan the new town as an exemplar in sustainable development. Under this project, led by BBP Regeneration, CE provided a detailed analysis of the population and employment drivers underpinning prospective demand for housing in the new town together with a range of sensitivity scenarios. The analysis related the potential demand for housing to the employment prospects in the town itself, in Cambridge, and in the wider sub-region and then established a distribution of different types of household (according to age, size, occupation and income characteristics). The analysis paid particular attention to the characteristics of those who normally settle in new housing developments and the demographic dynamics of the population over time, which has important implications for the scale of provision of social infrastructure, notably in education. The projections for numbers of households of different types were used as an input to an analysis of types of dwellings that would be required. The analysis contributed to English Partnerships' submissions to the planning process under the district's Local Development Framework.
Stoke Housing Market Renewal Pathfinder
Major Housebuilder
This project led by SQW was designed to inform the second stage bid by the client to become the principal developer partner for the North Staffordshire Housing Market Renewal Pathfinders of 'City Centre South' and 'Middleport' located in Stoke-on-Trent. CE provided broad forecasts of demographic change and labour market activity by sectors and occupations to 2021 for the Stoke area. This involved joint working with SQW policy analysts so as to give an evidence-based early understanding of the mix of factors likely to be driving future housing tenure choices in Stoke and therefore of how a planned tenure mix for these housing regeneration areas might be affected. The analysis looked at existing travel-to-work behaviour of households in the wider Stoke travel-to-work area and assessed the likely economic activity and occupational characteristics of future Stoke households. This provided the basis for a full contextual analysis of the range of policy and economic influences that these housing renewal developments would need to take into account and that needed to be demonstrated by the bid.
New Heartlands Housing Renewal
Liverpool City Council
The New Heartlands is charged with promoting housing market renewal in Liverpool through a locally-tailored approach to regenerating local neighbourhoods. This project, undertaken by a team led by Amion Consulting and including Pion Economics and Keppie Massey as well as CE, analysed the prospects for population growth, the implications for housing demand, and the potential displacement effects that might result from housing initiatives. This formed part of a larger body of work examining actual and potential housing supply, market research with existing and prospective residents, an examination of the proposed phasing of the redevelopment programme and the development of local capacity for asset management.
CE's role was to examine critically the alternative demographic forecasts for the area and to develop a series of alternative scenarios for the future path of the economy, embodying varying views on commuting.
Long-Term Projections of the Demand for Housing
in Barking Riverside
English Partnerships and the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham
English Partnerships were in the course of bringing forward a major housing development of some 10,500 dwellings at Barking Riverside, to be developed over a period of about a decade. Under this project, led by BBP Regeneration, CE provided a detailed and transparent analysis of the population and employment drivers underpinning prospective demand for housing in the borough, together with a range of sensitivity scenarios. The analysis broke down the potential demand for housing into work-related and non-work related decisions to reside in the borough, and analysed the work-related decisions in terms of the number and types of jobs likely to be generated within the borough and in the boroughs to which Barking residents might commute, taking account of prospective infrastructure improvements. The projections for numbers of households of different types were then used as an input to an analysis of types of dwellings that would be required.
Regeneration implications of development of
Thurrock retail offer
A major retail/leisure operator
Led by BBP Regeneration, and in collaboration with SQW, this project tested the progress towards, and the challenges implied by, the proposed spatial employment and housing development allocations recommended by the panel of inspectors for Thurrock following the Examination in Public of the draft East of England Regional Spatial Strategy. The work undertaken by CE involved providing forecasts of jobs by sector for the Essex Thames Gateway and Thurrock district, building on earlier work by CE for the Thames Gateway South Essex Partnership. The work assessed the gap between the latest 'business as usual' forecasts of jobs in the area by CE and an 'RSS' scenario that embodied the aspirations of the Plan, and the challenge this might present to delivering jobs in the area in accordance with the planning aspiration. The work analysed and forecast job creation in the retailing and logistics sectors in the Thurrock area. The project was undertaken to inform a major private sector retail client as it prepared its response to the recommendations of the Panel inspectors on West Thurrock/ Lakeside Basin future retail space and the Thames Gateway Urban Development Corporation.
For more information contact
Richard Lewney
Managing Director
 |
 |