UK macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts
How are the forecasts produced?
The forecasts are produced using CE's Multisectoral Dynamic Model (MDM) and the intelligence gathered from a network of industry experts.
MDM is distinguished from most other UK models by its degree of 'disaggregation' - the extent to which it breaks the economy down into different sectors. Some 41 industries are distinguished as integral parts of a single model, making MDM the largest model of the UK economy. The number of industries is chosen to give a good balance across the economy, without encumbering the model and the forecast with irrelevant and unnecessary detail. Because the model solves 'bottom-up' by adding industry projections together in an input-output framework, it does not suffer from the discrepancies between industry totals and macro totals that can require scaling to enforce consistency in a two-model approach. It produces consistent macroeconomic and industrial forecasts, which are provided together, in one service.
Industry experts from business and academia provide intelligence on factors such as company strategies, technological developments and structural shifts that could make future outturns differ from past experience.
The industries presently distinguished are:
| 1 | Agriculture | 22 | Electricity |
| 2 | Coal | 23 | Gas Supply |
| 3 | Oil & Gas etc | 24 | Water Supply |
| 4 | Other Mining | 25 | Construction |
| 5 | Food, Drink & Tobacco | 26 | Distribution |
| 6 | Textiles, Clothing & Leather | 27 | Retailing |
| 7 | Wood & Paper | 28 | Hotels & Catering |
| 8 | Printing and Publishing | 29 | Land Transport etc |
| 9 | Manufactured Fuels | 30 | Water Transport |
| 10 | Pharmaceuticals | 31 | Air Transport |
| 11 | Chemicals nes | 32 | Communications |
| 12 | Rubber & Plastics | 33 | Banking & Finance |
| 13 | Non-Metallic Mineral Products | 34 | Insurance |
| 14 | Basic Metals | 35 | Computing Services |
| 15 | Metal Goods | 36 | Professional Services |
| 16 | Mechanical Engineering | 37 | Other Business Services |
| 17 | Electronics | 38 | Public Administration & Defence |
| 18 | Electrical Engineering & Instruments | 39 | Education |
| 19 | Motor Vehicles | 40 | Health & Social Work |
| 20 | Other Transport Equipment | 41 | Miscellaneous Services |
| 21 | Manufacturing nes |
- How will the service support me and my business?
- How do I access the information?
- Can the service be further tailored to my needs?
For further information, including prices, and to order the service,
email:
Graham Hay
Manager, UK Industrial Service
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