UK local forecasts
How are the forecasts produced?
The local economic analysis is underpinned by LEFM, the powerful software forecasting model developed jointly by CE and the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwick. It is the only model of its type and provides a clear framework linking output and employment in the local economy to local spending and exports from the local area.
The range of local economic dataavailable from official sources is limited, and the LEFM methodology draws heavily on the wealth of economic and labour market data that is maintained and published by CE through our other services. We are transparent in our methodology and explain our assumptions clearly.
A key stage when analysing future prospects is to review the results of model-based analysis in the light of other partial, or 'soft', information that may be available. The LEFM framework allows local knowledge and views to be introduced explicitly.
Local data and projections are provided for a wide range of economic and demographic variables including.
For local economies in the UK:
- GDP
- employment and output for 41 separate industries
- employment by 25 occupational groups
- unemployment
- household incomes
- population labour force by age-band and gender
LEFM also provides simulation modules within which to consider:
- the future skills requirements of workers
- the replacement demand for occupations
- the implications of double-jobbing, commuting etc
- How will the service support me and my business?
- How do I access the information?
- Can the service be further tailored to my needs?
For further information, including prices, and to order the service,
email:
Mike May-Gillings
Manager, Local Economy Services
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