Forecasts for the Nations and Regions of the UK
How are the forecasts produced?
The forecasts are produced using CE's Multisectoral Dynamic Model-E3 (MDM-E3) and the intelligence gathered from a network of regional experts.
MDM-E3 is distinguished
from most other UK models by its degree of 'disaggregation', the extent
to which it breaks the economy down into different sectors. Some 41 industries
(30 regional industries) and 12
regions are distinguished as integral parts of a single model, making
MDM-E3 the largest model of the UK economy. Because the model solves
'bottom-up' by adding regional projections together, it does not suffer
from the discrepancies between regional and macro totals that can require
scaling to enforce consistency in a two-model approach. It produces consistent
macroeconomic, industrial, regional and financial forecasts, which are
provided together in one service.
Regional experts from business, government and academia provide intelligence
on factors such as company strategies, regional and local policy and
recent major investments that could make future outturns differ from
past experience.
MDM-E3 comprehensively
covers the 9 English Government Office regions plus Wales, Scotland
and Northern Ireland. It provides annual projections to the year 2020
for GVA, employment, income, spending, investment, unemployment, migration,
population, housing starts and number of households.
The UK countries/regions distinguished are:
1 |
London | 7 |
Yorkshire & the Humber |
2 |
South East | 8 |
North West |
3 |
East of England | 9 |
North East |
4 |
South West | 10 |
Wales |
5 |
West Midlands | 11 |
Scotland |
6 |
East Midlands | 12 |
Northern Ireland |
The level of industrial disaggregation currently published for output and employment is as follows:
| 1 | Agriculture | 16 | Motor vehicles |
| 2 | Coal | 17 | Other transport equipment |
| 3 | Oil & natural gas | 18 | Other manufacturing |
| 4 | Other mining | 19 | Electricity, gas, water |
| 5 | Food, drink & tobacco | 20 | Construction |
| 6 | extiles, clothing & leather | 21 | Distribution |
| 7 | Wood & wood products | 22 | Retailing |
| 8 | Paper, printing & publishing | 23 | Hotels & catering |
| 9 | Manufactured fuels | 24 | Transport & communications |
| 10 | Chemicals & man-made fibres | 25 | Banking & finance |
| 11 | Rubber & plastic products | 26 | Insurance |
| 12 | Non-metallic mineral products | 27 | Other business services |
| 13 | Basic metals & metal products | 28 | Public administration & defence |
| 14 | Mechanical engineering | 29 | Education & health |
| 15 | Electronics, electrical, instrument engineering | 30 | Other services |
The Department for Education and Employment maintains a website with
a database and commentary on Labour Market Information, Skills and Education.
The website provides projections prepared by Cambridge Econometrics and
the Institute for Employment Research at Warwick University.
www.skillsbase.dfes.gov.uk
- How will the service support me and my business?
- How do I access the information?
- Can the service be further tailored to my needs?
For further information, including prices, and to order the service,
email:
Katerina Homenidou
Associate Director
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