Recent developments
Over 2007 and the first part of 2008, development of the E3ME model has continued at a rapid pace. Version 4.6 of the model was completed in early 2008 and brings together all of these enhancements.
The main changes are:- an expansion of the model to include Romania and Bulgaria
- an update of the historical database to include time-series data up to 2006
- a revised baseline forecast
- inclusion of the Energy Technology Model
- incorporation of a new material flows submodel
- an increase in the number of consumption categories to 41
- incorporation of the latest input-output tables from the OECD
- an expansion of the model's internal memory stack
- an update to the model's visual basic front end to take these changes into account, and Windows Vista compatibility
The incorporation of the bottom-up Energy Technology Model (ETM) for the electricity supply industry is a major addition to E3ME, allowing for a much more detailed analysis of the power generation sector. The ETM includes 24 energy technologies and models the transition from fossil fuels to low-carbon alternatives. Its specification in E3ME is described in more detail here.
The extension of E3ME to cover material flows is also a major addition. This includes the econometric estimation of demands for seven types of input materials (in addition to the fuels already covered) by 15 user groups in relation to economic activity, relative prices and (endogenous) technological progress. Feedback to the wider economy is given through adjusting input-output coefficients. For more details about this development please see here.
Other than the increase in country coverage (to include the EU27 + Norway and Switzerland) and consumer spending categories, the main model classifications are unchanged, with 42 industrial sectors, 12 fuels and 19 fuel user groups. The model’s classifications remain broadly consistent with Cambridge Econometrics' global model (E3MG) and UK model (MDM-E3).
The main data sources remain Eurostat and the OECD's structural analysis (STAN) indicators. EU KLEMS data are also used where appropriate. E3ME can be used for ex-post analysis over the period 1970-2006 and ex-ante analysis as far ahead as 2030.
The link below takes you to a list of ongoing and completed European
projects at Cambridge Econometrics.
Examples
of our work
In addition, over 2006-08 The Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR), University of Cambridge, is using E3ME to evaluate the costs of different climate change mitigation options across Europe and to assess the impacts of including aviation in the European Emission Trading Scheme. For more details of these major research projects please see:
http://www.landecon.cam.ac.uk/research/eeprg/4cmr/adam.htm
http://www.landecon.cam.ac.uk/research/eeprg/4cmr/omega.htm
E3ME: An Energy-Environment-Economy Model of Europe
The stochastic functions of the model
For more information contact:
Hector Pollitt
Project Manager - European Modelling
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