E3MG: An Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) Model at the Global Level
E3MG is a sectoral econometric model for the world that has been developed with the explicit intention of analysing long-term energy and environment interactions within the global economy and assessing short and long-term impacts of climate change policy. E3MG produces comprehensive annual forecasts to the year 2020, and long-term forecasts to the year 2100 and includes a set of fully endogenous technical progress indicators. The E3MG model provides a single-model framework in which detailed industry analysis is consistent with macro analysis; the key indicators, including world trade and technical progress, are modelled separately for each sector and region, and are aggregated to determine global impacts.
E3MG provides a highly disaggregated breakdown of economic activity (ESA-95 consistent) and energy use, based around the following model classifications:
- 20 World regions, including explicit treatment of the US, Japan, India, China, Mexico, Brazil and the four largest EU economies
- 42 Industrial sectors based on the NACE classification, including 16 service sectors and disaggregation of the energy sectors
- 28 Consumer spending categories
- 12 different fuel types, and 19 separate fuel user groups
- 14 atmospheric emissions
Many of the classifications in E3MG are consistent with those of E3ME and MDM-E3 and the model is solved on the software platform IDIOM.
E3MG version 2 has been built by teams at Cambridge Econometrics and the University of Cambridge as a contribution to the work of the UK Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. E3MG is a component of the Tyndall Centre's Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) being developed as an intermediate scale coupled climate-ocean system in the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge.
The E3MG model is being used to assess the impacts of binding global climate agreements at the Copenhagen United Nations Climate Change Conference in November 2009.
Associated Publications
Barker, T., Pan, H., Köhler, J., Warren, R. and Winne, S. (2006) 'Decarbonizing the Global Economy with Induced Technological Change: Scenarios to 2100 using E3MG'. In Edenhofer, O., Lessmann, K., Kemfert, K., Grubb, M. and Köhler, J. (eds) Induced Technological Change: Exploring its Implications for the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilization Energy Journal Special Issue on the International Model Comparison Project.
Barker, T., Pan, H., Köhler, J., Warren, R. and Winne, S. (2005) 'Avoiding dangerous climate change by inducing technological progress: scenarios using a large-scale econometric model’, chapter 38 in Schellnhuber, H. J., Cramer, W., Nakicenovic, N., Wigley, T. and Yohe, G. (Eds.) Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2005.
For more information contact:
Hector Pollitt
Project Manager - European Modelling
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